The Decades That Invented the Future, Part 12: The Present and Beyond












Since 2007, Wired.com’s This Day In Tech blog has reflected on important and entertaining events in the history of science and innovation, pursuing them chronologically for each day of the year. Hundreds of these essays have now been collected into a trivia book, Mad Science: Einstein’s Fridge, Dewar’s Flask, Mach’s Speed and 362 Other Inventions and Discoveries that Made Our World. It goes on sale Nov. 13, and is available for pre-order today at Amazon, Barnes and Noble and other online book stores.






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Well: Old Age and Motorcycles Are a Dangerous Mix

If you’re over 40 and planning to hop on a motorcycle, take care. Compared with younger riders, the odds of being seriously injured are high.

That is the message of a new study, published this week in the journal Injury Prevention, which found that older bikers are three times as likely to be severely injured in a crash as younger riders.

The percentage of older bikers on the road is quickly rising, and their involvement in accidents is a growing concern. Nationwide, from 1990 to 2003, the percentage of motorcyclists over age 50 soared from roughly 1 in 10 to about 1 in 4. At the same time, the average age of riders involved in motorcycle crashes has also been climbing. Injury rates among those 65 and older jumped 145 percent from 2000 to 2006 alone.

Because of the increase in motorcycle ridership among older Americans, the researchers, led by Tracy Jackson, a graduate student in the epidemiology department at Brown University, wanted a closer look at their injury patterns. So she and her colleagues combed through a federal database of motorcycle crashes that were serious enough to require emergency medical care. That yielded about 1.5 million incidents involving motorcyclists 20 or older from 2001 to 2008.

The researchers then split them into groups: those in their 20s and 30s, another group between 40 and 59, and those 60 and older.

Over all, the study showed that injury rates for all three groups were on the rise. But the rise was steepest for the oldest riders. Compared with the youngest motorcyclists, those who were 60 and older were two and a half times as likely to end up with serious injuries, and three times as likely to be admitted to a hospital. The riders who were middle age were twice as likely as their younger counterparts to be hospitalized.

For older riders, the consequences of a collision were also especially alarming. Older and middle-aged bikers were more likely to sustain fractures and dislocations, and they had a far greater chance of ending up with injuries to internal organs, including brain damage.

The researchers speculated that it was very likely that a number of factors played a role in older riders’ higher injury rates. For one, declines in vision and reaction time may make older riders more prone to mistakes that end up in collisions. Another theory is that older riders tend to ride bigger bikes, “which may be more likely to roll or turn over,” Ms. Jackson said.

Then there is the greater fragility that comes with age. Older riders may be involved in the same types of accidents as younger riders, Ms. Jackson said, but in some cases, a collision that a 20-year-old would walk away from might send a 65-year-old to the hospital.

“Your bones become more brittle, and you lose muscle mass as you get older,” she said. “It could just be a matter of aging and the body being less durable.”

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Chinese Imports and Exports Soar in January


HONG KONG — January trade data from China on Friday showed a surge in exports and imports from the levels of a year earlier — a phenomenon largely due to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday but also supporting the view that the Chinese economy is firming up.


Economic data from China are often severely distorted by the holiday, when many factories shut down for a week or more.


The holiday this year takes place in February — the first day of the Lunar New Year is Sunday. Last year it fell squarely in January, cutting down on the number of working days during that month.


The trade data released Friday reflected this with a large increase, compared with the year before, as analysts had expected. Exports climbed 25 percent from January 2012, according to the General Administration of Customs, and imports rose 28.8 percent.


The increases were much lower when adjusted for the holiday-induced differences in the number of working days, with exports up 12.4 percent and imports just 3.4 percent higher.


Still, the data beat expectations by a wide margin, supporting the view that healthier domestic and overseas demand also had been significant.


“This strong export number cannot be fully explained by the Chinese New Year effect alone,” Zhiwei Zhang, chief China economist at Nomura in Hong Kong, said in a research note. “These data suggest that external and domestic demand are both strong, which supports our view that the economy is on track for a cyclical recovery” in the first half of this year, he added.


Dariusz Kowalczyk, an economist at Crédit Agricole in Hong Kong, said, “We need to wait for February results to have the full picture of trade at the start of 2013.” However, he added, “one trend is clear: exports have been doing very well recently. This may be a sign of improved external demand but is also a testimony to the resilience of Chinese exporters and to their competitiveness.”


Improved overseas demand and a string of government-mandated stimulus measures have gradually propped up growth and dispelled fears of a hard landing in China. While the Chinese economy expanded just 7.8 percent last year — down from 9.3 percent in 2011 and 10.4 percent in 2010 — many analysts expect growth to top 8 percent again in 2013.


Central bank data Friday that showed ample money had continued to flood into the economy also supported this view. Banks extended 1.07 trillion renminbi, or $172 billion, in new loans during January, more than analysts had expected. Total “social financing aggregate” in the economy, a broad measure of liquidity, or the ease of trading assets, more than doubled from a year earlier, to 2.54 trillion renminbi.


That figure, Mr. Kowalczyk commented, was a “blowout number.”


Like other data released Friday, the financing figure was lifted by the Lunar New Year effects, but even without these, Mr. Kowalczyk said, it was a “huge amount of funding” and would sustain solid economic growth in the near term at least.


Longer term, he cautioned, it would also “stoke inflationary pressures,” and could lead the central bank to tighten monetary policy further down the line as it seeks to stave off inflationary pressures.


For now, inflation remains benign. Consumer prices rose just 2 percent in January from a year earlier, a moderation from the 2.5 percent year-on-year increase in December. The low inflation number, released Friday, was in line with forecasts, but analysts widely expect a rebound in February.


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L.A. Unified misspent millions marked for school lunches









At least eight California school districts have misappropriated millions of dollars in funding intended to pay for meals for low-income students — the biggest culprit being the Los Angeles Unified School District, according to a state Senate watchdog group.


The California Department of Education has ordered districts to repay more than $170 million in misused funds to their student meal programs, the California Senate Office of Oversight and Outcomes said in a report issued Wednesday. L.A. Unified has been forced to pay back more than $158 million in misappropriations and unrelated charges that the district made over six years ending in 2011.


State officials suspect the alleged misuse of funds could be more widespread across California school districts.





In most cases, school systems attempted to use cafeteria funds to pay for personnel, utilities and other expenses. Other school districts named in the report are Oxnard, San Diego, Santa Ana, San Francisco, Baldwin Park, Centinela Valley and Compton.


Oxnard was forced to repay $5.6 million. San Diego and Santa Ana are challenging the findings of the department, which has ordered them to pay $4.5 million and $2.7 million, respectively.


L.A. Unified redirected funding for years –- ignoring reports from administrators and its own inspector general –- before an employee alerted state authorities, the survey said. Among other expenses, the district diverted funding to pay for sprinklers and salaries of employees at a district television station.


L.A. Unified said in a statement that administrators have been working with the state to ensure compliance and said the district "looks forward to success with state education officials in this work to find a more rational approach to accounting and compliance guidelines for all schools statewide."


Federal regulations require districts to keep the student meal funding in an account to be used only for the improvement of food service. Most districts keep federal, state and other cafeteria revenues in that same account and all funds must comply with federal regulations, the report said.


The report, however, found that the system to monitor the spending of those funds is overloaded and that the regulations governing spending are too complex. School districts, as a result, have repeatedly disregarded the rules and subsequently contested violations as arguable interpretations of the law, the report said.


Oversight of these funds is carried out by 60 state examiners who monitor nearly 3,000 districts. Examiners — who are nutritionists — have not completed all inspections required by law since 2001 and "rarely take more than a cursory look at the books," the report said.


The diversion of funds often contributes to conditions that discourage eligible students from seeking free or reduced-priced meals. To maximize funds, districts have used cost-saving methods of serving processed rather than fresh foods, shortening lunch periods and cutting back on cafeteria maintenance and staff — all of which hinder student participation, the report said.


"They are literally taking food out of the mouths of kids," Richard Zeiger, chief deputy superintendent of public instruction, said in a statement.


From the 2004-2005 school year to 2010-2011, the number of L.A. Unified students eligible for reduced-price or free lunches fell below statewide averages. During those years, the district — the state's largest — averaged a participation rate of between 51% and 60% among eligible students. School districts statewide averaged between 71% and 74% participation.


Students who are eligible for reduced-priced or free lunches are from low-income and poverty-level families.


L.A. Unified has become a leader in providing more healthful meals, offering foods with less sodium and fat, and including more fresh fruit and vegetables. The district serves 650,000 meals a day.


The state has allowed L.A. Unified to use money from its general fund that was already going toward covering a deficit in its food services budget to "write off" the debt, the report said. The district has used those funds to pay off about $120 million so far.


The state Education Department said it has begun training employees on how to flag accounting issues and is in the process of hiring additional monitoring staff.


stephen.ceasar@latimes.com





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Apple Should, And Will, Make a Smartwatch



It isn’t a matter of “if” Apple creates a smartwatch, but rather “when.” And “why.”


Moving into the hot “wearables” market with a smartwatch would allow Apple to compete against upstarts like Pebble and seasoned stalwarts like Sony and capitalize on a trend that is sweeping the industry — as shown by the vast number of “wearable” computing devices seen at CES this year. Companies like Nike, Adidas and Motorola are expected to ship 90 million wearables by 2017, and there’s no way Apple would miss out on a piece of that action. A smartwatch would also help complete Apple’s product lineup since the company abandoned the wrist-wearable, square-shaped iPod nano in favor of a larger-screened version.


“The overall trend is that computing is diversifying, and the body is the next frontier for computing,” said Forrester analyst Sarah Rotman Epps. “It would seem strange for Apple to have no goal in shaping what that next phase of computing looks like.”


There’s been a number of signs suggesting Apple is hard at work on a gadget to revolutionize the smartwatch space. There are reports that Apple may be working with Intel to develop a smartwatch with a 1.5-inch PMOLED display. Apple’s investment in curved display technology also would work beautifully on a wearable product. And don’t forget that countless people wore the iPod Nano as a wristwatch — using third-party bands sold in Apple stores.


A smartwatch-size display certainly would fit nicely into Apple’s product lineup, which features mobile and desktop devices in a wide a variety of form factors. At the small end, you’ve got the display-less iPod shuffle, followed by the rest of Apple’s iPod and iPhone lineup, up to the 4-inch iPhone 5. With a hole in the 5- to 6-inch “phablet” area, the 8-inch iPad mini and full-size iPad models round out Apple’s offerings on the mobile front. Then you’ve got the 11-, 13- and 15-inch MacBook Air and Pro laptops, followed by the largest-screened iMacs and Cinema Display.


Besides the aforementioned phablet space, which would be an evolutionary addition like the iPad mini, Apple could add something a bit more “revolutionary” at either end of the spectrum — something small and wearable, or large, like an Apple television. But there are a number of difficulties associated with debuting the sort of game-changing TV we’d expect from Apple, and given the recent surge of wearable technologies, a wrist-worn computer makes much more sense in the near term.


How so?


Apple doesn’t typically invent a new market segment, but enter established ones where it sees great opportunity. There are plenty of iOS-compatible wearable devices already out there now — the Kickstarter-backed Pebble smartwatch is a notable newcomer, and with Martian watches and Metawatches are other options. Sony’s smartwatch is currently an Android-only model. So the time is right for Apple to jump in the pool.


“Apple tends not to be the first,” Bruce “Tog” Tognazzini of the Nielsen Norman Group, told Wired. He’s an expert in human-computer interaction, and spent 14 years at Apple in human interface design. “Apple tends to let other people make the mistakes, then wait till the technology is ready and come out with a product that really solves the problem.”


He believes current smartwatches fail in a couple of key areas: in overall design, with charging, and the need for buttons and menu trees on-device. With Jony Ive at the helm of Apple, we can expect sleek, unobtrusive hardware that meshes with current products. Apple’s previous experience with small devices like the iPod paired with Siri’s voice control will eliminate the need for complicated onscreen menus, or anything more than basic touch controls. Device charging is perhaps the most problematic area. People who wear watches tend to wear them all the time, and the tiny batteries needed to power them keep them going for years. Some wearables last a week, tops, but most need to be charged daily.


Rotman Epps surmises Apple could differentiate itself from competitors in two important ways: display technology and multifunctionality. Apple has made a name for itself with stunning displays, particularly the spectacular Retina Display devices, while providing better battery that meets or exceeds that of its competitors. That will be an advantage in the wearable space.


And in each of the areas Apple has recently “revolutionized” — the iPod, with MP3 players; the iPhone, with the smartphone space; and the iPad, with tablets — the major thing Apple accomplished, besides delivering a product with an easy-to-use interface and slick industrial design, was create a product that was multifunctional. Apple’s established a rich third-party developer ecosystem that can enhance a product far beyond its initially imagined capabilities. Creating an app ecosystem is a challenge for smaller smartwatch makers, like Pebble, who must partner with other hardware companies like Twine or app-makers like Runkeeper.


This is why current smartwatches stick to a fairly predictable repertoire of abilities, including relaying notifications from your phone (like voicemails, e-mails, tweets, and texts), tracking basic health and fitness stats using an accelerometer and gyroscope, and providing information on the weather. Bluetooth 4.0 lets these devices integrate with your mobile device using very low power. But with deep iOS integration, Siri, and third-party apps, Apple’s smartwatch could go so much further down the rabbit hole and truly bring computing to your wrist.


Tognazzini notes in a blog post that the smartwatch could act as a passcode for your iPhone — rather than needing to manually enter some digits to unlock your handset or adjust settings, the watch’s proximity would let your iDevice know that it is you, and not an impostor, trying to access the device. Similarly, the smartwatch could integrate with the Find My iPhone feature to make finding your misplaced phone or tablet as simple as issuing a command into your wrist-worn computer. A watch could also act as a portal to Passbook, he said, with the Apple-made app’s alerts and barcodes popping up on your wrist instead of on your handset. When you’re hustling through the airport, for example, that means one less thing you’ve got to dig out of your pocket in order to get through security.


We also could see an Apple smartwatch controlling third-party accessories and devices, like a Bluetooth toy car, the temperature and conditions inside your home, or household appliances. It could also act as a remote control — for that rumored Apple television, perhaps? — or even be used in correcting Apple Maps.


While the smartwatch space has been slowly growing since around 2006, when Metawatch first started creating Bluetooth watches, it’s only just begun to mature in recent years. When will Apple join the fray? Based on the maturity of the space, and the lack of prototype leaks, I would expect we’d see it late this year or next year.


“Apple has excelled at creating multifunctional experiences that consumers love,” Rotmann Epps said. The smartwatch will be the next frontier for that.


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Unsigned singer tops MTV poll as artists call tunes






LONDON (Reuters) – Singer-songwriter Ebony Day has been named MTV‘s act to watch in 2013 before even signing a record deal, underlining how up-and-coming artists are increasingly using the internet and social networking sites to build a significant fan base.


Inspired by the viral success of Canadian teen sensation Justin Bieber, the 19-year-old Briton posted a series of online videos performing cover versions, and quickly amassed a sizeable following – 18 million views on her YouTube channel and 156,000 subscribers to date.






She mobilized that support to vote for her in MTV’s annual Brand New poll, topped in the past by Conor Maynard and Bieber.


The 92,000 votes were enough to put her ahead of several signed nominees, including Gabrielle Aplin, who already has a number one British single to her name, and Haim, the LA sister act widely tipped for the top this year and beyond.


“I think it shows that to get a fan base before you make it is really important,” Day said in a telephone interview.


“That’s been something I’ve been focusing on for three years. What the fans have done is to show how things are changing, and it is not just the record labels picking artists, but the actual public.”


The ability of musicians to reach an audience long before stepping into a recording studio or on to the stage is changing the way artists and labels interact, giving singers greater say and reducing some of the risks for music companies.


Wannabe stars like Day still gravitate towards labels, believing they can only go so far on their own no matter how large their fan base.


“For me at the minute, I have got the fan base and got probably enough to do a little tour and things like that.


“Now I need backing, mostly in terms of money, because I’m a student and have no funds to make merchandise and go on tour and make an album,” she said.


LEVEL PLAYING FIELD


Day could resort to making music from fan contributions via websites like Pledgemusic.com, but said she did not feel comfortable asking her supporters for money.


Yet having built up a following, she will have a greater say over the terms of any deal, which today frequently covers revenue streams outside record sales such as live performances, commercial use of songs, merchandising and branding.


“I think that does happen and is happening with me,” she explained. “I think now I’ve got such a backing it does make it more difficult (for the labels) because they know I’ll probably want a better deal.”


For record companies – three “majors” Sony, Vivendi’s Universal and Warner Music Group plus hundreds of others from “mini-majors” to household outfits – there can be advantages.


They do not have to build a fan base from scratch and are less likely to pay out large and risky sign-on fees, which went out of fashion a decade or so ago as revenues from music sales began to plummet.


Labels blame rampant online piracy for their woes – global recorded music sales fell from a peak of $ 28.6 billion in 1999 to $ 16.6 billion in 2011 – but there is cautious optimism that digital music revenue could return the business to growth soon.


This willingness to engage the digital revolution rather than fight it has changed the way companies unearth new talent.


A&R (artists and repertoire) managers spend more time now trawling the internet than they do traipsing from pub to club to see bands live, although most still want to see an act performing before taking the plunge.


Music managers see both upsides and downsides to the shifting models.


Nigel Templeman of Trust Management, who co-manages bands including Dexysm and Howler, believes music risks becoming a secondary consideration for A&R scouts.


“Bands are being signed if there is the necessary market research being done such as YouTube views, Twitter followers and all of that,” he told Reuters.


“The idea that bands are being signed just on the merit of the material is not the truth anymore.”


But he also argued that bands had begun to understand it was not about making a killing overnight.


“If you are going to be a musician these days, you’ve got to look at it in a different way to how you did even five years ago,” he said. “It’s about having ambition, but also about being realistic. It’s a career choice versus getting rich quick.”


“DON’T GIVE IT AWAY”


Matt Wilkinson, New Bands Editor at music magazine NME, warned up-and-coming acts to resist the temptation to give too much music away for free to earn fans and industry attention.


“I think that is the model now, undoubtedly, but I can’t say I think it’s a particularly positive thing. It makes things more difficult for record labels and the bands themselves.


“It’s quite disheartening to find a really good band and six of their songs are already out there online,” he told Reuters.


“It’s sort of giving themselves away. My advice is keep stuff back. Your fans don’t need to hear all of your material. Record labels do.”


Day, who has played covers rather than her own music, has avoided that particular pitfall.


Her music “career” started three years ago when she learned to play the guitar during a long absence from school caused by allergies which were undiagnosed at the time.


Initially she was nervous about posting videos of herself singing, but took inspiration from Canadian chart topper Bieber, an early viral sensation who was picked up by a talent agent in 2008 on the strength of his YouTube postings.


“I saw his (Bieber’s) videos right from the start when he was at home, without much money,” said Day. “He’s gone from an unknown person over the years to worldwide fame. I wanted that too.”


Day is studying at the Academy of Contemporary Music in Guildford, southern England, but aims to build her pop career in 2013.


“In the next year I would like to release my own music, because I’ve only been doing covers and want people to see what my music is like.”


She expects to release a debut single in April, and, depending on its reception there will be an EP and a British tour to follow.


For fans, being part of an online community can be appealing, be it Lady Gaga’s “little monsters”, Bieber’s “Beliebers” – both of which number more than 33 million on Twitter – or the more modest 44,000-odd “Ebonerds”.


(Reporting by Mike Collett-White)


Music News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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Well: Think Like a Doctor: A Confused and Terrified Patient

The Challenge: Can you solve the mystery of a middle-aged man recovering from a serious illness who suddenly becomes frightened and confused?

Every month the Diagnosis column of The New York Times Magazine asks Well readers to sift through a difficult case and solve a diagnostic riddle. Below you will find a summary of a case involving a 55-year-old man well on his way to recovering from a series of illnesses when he suddenly becomes confused and paranoid. I will provide you with the main medical notes, labs and imaging results available to the doctor who made the diagnosis.

The first reader to figure out this case will get a signed copy of my book, “Every Patient Tells a Story,” along with the satisfaction of knowing you solved a case of Sherlockian complexity. Good luck.

The Presenting Problem:

A 55-year-old man who is recovering from a devastating injury in a rehabilitation facility suddenly becomes confused, frightened and paranoid.

The Patient’s Story:

The patient, who was recovering from a terrible injury and was too weak to walk, had been found on the floor of his room at the extended care facility, raving that there were people out to get him. He was taken to the emergency room at the Waterbury Hospital in Connecticut, where he was diagnosed with a urinary tract infection and admitted to the hospital for treatment. Doctors thought his delirium was caused by the infection, but after 24 hours, despite receiving the appropriate antibiotics, the patient remained disoriented and frightened.

A Sister’s Visit:

The man’s sister came to visit him on his second day in the hospital. As she walked into the room she was immediately struck by her brother’s distress.

“Get me out of here!” the man shouted from his hospital bed. “They are coming to get me. I gotta get out of here!”

His blue eyes darted from side to side as if searching for his would-be attackers. His arms and legs shook with fear. He looked terrified.

For the past few months, the man had been in and out of the hospital, but he had been getting better — at least he had been improving the last time his sister saw him, the week before. She hurried into the bustling hallway and found a nurse. “What the hell is going on with my brother?” she demanded.

A Long Series of Illnesses:

Three months earlier, the patient had been admitted to that same hospital with delirium tremens. After years of alcohol abuse, he had suddenly stopped drinking a couple of days before, and his body was wracked by the sudden loss of the chemical he had become addicted to. He’d spent an entire week in the hospital but finally recovered. He was sent home, but he didn’t stay there for long.

The following week, when his sister hadn’t heard from him for a couple of days, she forced her way into his home. There she found him, unconscious, in the basement, at the bottom of his staircase. He had fallen, and it looked as if he may have been there for two, possibly three, days. He was close to death. Indeed, in the ambulance on the way to the hospital, his heart had stopped. Rapid action by the E.M.T.’s brought his heart back to life, and he made it to the hospital.

There the extent of the damage became clear. The man’s kidneys had stopped working, and his body chemistry was completely out of whack. He had a severe concussion. And he’d had a heart attack.

He remained in the intensive care unit for nearly three weeks, and in the hospital another two weeks. Even after these weeks of care and recovery, the toll of his injury was terrible. His kidneys were not working, so he required dialysis three times a week. He had needed a machine to help him breathe for so long that he now had to get oxygen through a hole that had been cut into his throat. His arms and legs were so weak that he could not even lift them, and because he was unable even to swallow, he had to be fed through a tube that went directly into his stomach.

Finally, after five weeks in the hospital, he was well enough to be moved to a short-term rehabilitation hospital to complete the long road to recovery. But he was still far from healthy. The laughing, swaggering, Harley-riding man his sister had known until that terrible fall seemed a distant memory, though she saw that he was slowly getting better. He had even started to smile and make jokes. He was confident, he had told her, that with a lot of hard work he could get back to normal. So was she; she knew he was tough.

Back to the Hospital:

The patient had been at the rehab facility for just over two weeks when the staff noticed a sudden change in him. He had stopped smiling and was no longer making jokes. Instead, he talked about people that no one else could see. And he was worried that they wanted to harm him. When he remained confused for a second day, they sent him to the emergency room.

You can see the records from that E.R. visit here.

The man told the E.R. doctor that he knew he was having hallucinations. He thought they had started when he had begun taking a pill to help him sleep a couple of days earlier. It seemed a reasonable explanation, since the medication was known to cause delirium in some people. The hospital psychiatrist took him off that medication and sent him back to rehab that evening with a different sleeping pill.

Back to the Hospital, Again:

Two days later, the patient was back in the emergency room. He was still seeing things that weren’t there, but now he was quite confused as well. He knew his name but couldn’t remember what day or month it was, or even what year. And he had no idea where he was, or where he had just come from.

When the medical team saw the patient after he had been admitted, he was unable to provide any useful medical history. His medical records outlined his earlier hospitalizations, and records from the nursing home filled in additional details. The patient had a history of high blood pressure, depression and alcoholism. He was on a long list of medications. And he had been confused for the past several days.

On examination, he had no fever, although a couple of hours earlier his temperature had been 100.0 degrees. His heart was racing, and his blood pressure was sky high. His arms and legs were weak and swollen. His legs were shaking, and his reflexes were very brisk. Indeed, when his ankle was flexed suddenly, it continued to jerk back and forth on its own three or four times before stopping, a phenomenon known as clonus.

His labs were unchanged from the previous visit except for his urine, which showed signs of a serious infection. A CT scan of the brain was unremarkable, as was a chest X-ray. He was started on an intravenous antibiotic to treat the infection. The thinking was that perhaps the infection was causing the patient’s confusion.

You can see the notes from that second hospital visit here.

His sister had come to visit him the next day, when he was as confused as he had ever been. He was now trembling all over and looked scared to death, terrified. He was certain he was being pursued.

That is when she confronted the nurse, demanding to know what was going on with her brother. The nurse didn’t know. No one did. His urinary tract infection was being treated with antibiotics, but he continued to have a rapid heart rate and elevated blood pressure, along with terrifying hallucinations.

Solving the Mystery:

Can you figure out why this man was so confused and tremulous? I have provided you with all the data available to the doctor who made the diagnosis. The case is not easy — that is why it is here. I’ll post the answer on Friday.


Rules and Regulations: Post your questions and diagnosis in the comments section below.. The correct answer will appear Friday on Well. The winner will be contacted. Reader comments may also appear in a coming issue of The New York Times Magazine.

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DealBook: E-Mails Show Flaws in JPMorgan's Mortgage Securities

When an outside analysis uncovered serious flaws with thousands of home loans, JPMorgan Chase executives found an easy fix.

Rather than disclosing the full extent of problems like fraudulent home appraisals and overextended borrowers, the bank adjusted the critical reviews, according to documents filed early Tuesday in federal court in Manhattan. As a result, the mortgages, which JPMorgan bundled into complex securities, appeared healthier, making the deals more appealing to investors.

The trove of internal e-mails and employee interviews, filed as part of a lawsuit by one of the investors in the securities, offers a fresh glimpse into Wall Street’s mortgage machine, which churned out billions of dollars of securities that later imploded. The documents reveal that JPMorgan, as well as two firms the bank acquired during the credit crisis, Washington Mutual and Bear Stearns, flouted quality controls and ignored problems, sometimes hiding them entirely, in a quest for profit.

The lawsuit, which was filed by Dexia, a Belgian-French bank, is being closely watched on Wall Street. After suffering significant losses, Dexia sued JPMorgan and its affiliates in 2012, claiming it had been duped into buying $1.6 billion of troubled mortgage-backed securities. The latest documents could provide a window into a $200 billion case that looms over the entire industry. In that lawsuit, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, has accused 17 banks of selling dubious mortgage securities to the two housing giants. At least 20 of the securities are also highlighted in the Dexia case, according to an analysis of court records.

In court filings, JPMorgan has strongly denied wrongdoing and is contesting both cases in federal court. The bank declined to comment.

Dexia’s lawsuit is part of a broad assault on Wall Street for its role in the 2008 financial crisis, as prosecutors, regulators and private investors take aim at mortgage-related securities. New York’s attorney general, Eric T. Schneiderman, sued JPMorgan last year over investments created by Bear Stearns between 2005 and 2007.

Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan’s chief executive, has criticized prosecutors for attacking JPMorgan because of what Bear Stearns did. Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in October, Mr. Dimon said the bank did the federal government “a favor” by rescuing the flailing firm in 2008.

The legal onslaught has been costly. In November, JPMorgan, the nation’s largest bank, agreed to pay $296.9 million to settle claims by the Securities and Exchange Commission that Bear Stearns had misled mortgage investors by hiding some delinquent loans. JPMorgan did not admit or deny wrongdoing.

“The true price tag for the ongoing costs of the litigation is terrifying,” said Christopher Whalen, a senior managing director at Tangent Capital Partners.

The Dexia lawsuit centers on complex securities created by JPMorgan, Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual during the housing boom. As profits soared, the Wall Street firms scrambled to pump out more investments, even as questions emerged about their quality.

With a seemingly insatiable appetite, JPMorgan scooped up mortgages from lenders with troubled records, according to the court documents. In an internal “due diligence scorecard,” JPMorgan ranked large mortgage originators, assigning Washington Mutual and American Home Mortgage the lowest grade of “poor” for their documentation, the court filings show.

The loans were quickly sold to investors. Describing the investment assembly line, an executive at Bear Stearns told employees “we are a moving company not a storage company,” according to the court documents.

As they raced to produce mortgage-backed securities, Washington Mutual and Bear Stearns also scaled back their quality controls, the documents indicate.

In an initiative called Project Scarlett, Washington Mutual slashed its due diligence staff by 25 percent as part of an effort to bolster profit. Such steps “tore the heart out” of quality controls, according to a November 2007 e-mail from a Washington Mutual executive. Executives who pushed back endured “harassment” when they tried to “keep our discipline and controls in place,” the e-mail said.

Even when flaws were flagged, JPMorgan and the other firms sometimes overlooked the warnings.

JPMorgan routinely hired Clayton Holdings and other third-party firms to examine home loans before they were packed into investments. Combing through the mortgages, the firms searched for problems like borrowers who had vastly overstated their incomes or appraisals that inflated property values.

According to the court documents, an analysis for JPMorgan in September 2006 found that “nearly half of the sample pool” — or 214 loans — were “defective,” meaning they did not meet the underwriting standards. The borrowers’ incomes, the firms found, were dangerously low relative to the size of their mortgages. Another troubling report in 2006 discovered that thousands of borrowers had already fallen behind on their payments.

But JPMorgan at times dismissed the critical assessments or altered them, the documents show. Certain JPMorgan employees, including the bankers who assembled the mortgages and the due diligence managers, had the power to ignore or veto bad reviews.

In some instances, JPMorgan executives reduced the number of loans considered delinquent, the documents show. In others, the executives altered the assessments so that a smaller number of loans were considered “defective.”

In a 2007 e-mail, titled “Banking overrides,” a JPMorgan due diligence manager asks a banker: “How do you want to handle these loans?” At times, they whitewashed the findings, the documents indicate. In 2006, for example, a review of mortgages found that at least 1,154 loans were more than 30 days delinquent. The offering documents sent to investors showed only 25 loans as delinquent.

A person familiar with the bank’s portfolios said JPMorgan had reviewed the loans separately and determined that the number of delinquent loans was far less than the outside analysis had found.

At Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual, employees also had the power to sanitize bad assessments. Employees at Bear Stearns were told that they were responsible for “purging all of the older reports” that showed flaws, “leaving only the final reports,” according to the court documents.

Such actions were designed to bolster profit. In a deposition, a Washington Mutual employee said revealing loan defects would undermine the lucrative business, and that the bank would suffer “a couple-point hit in price.”

Ratings agencies also did not necessarily get a complete picture of the investments, according to the court filings. An assessment of the loans in one security revealed that 24 percent of the sample was “materially defective,” the filings show. After exercising override power, a JPMorgan employee sent a report in May 2006 to a ratings agency that showed only 5.3 percent of the mortgages were defective.

Such investments eventually collapsed, spreading losses across the financial system.

Dexia, which has been bailed out twice since the financial crisis, lost $774 million on mortgage-backed securities, according to court records.

Mr. Schneiderman, the New York attorney general, said that overall losses from flawed mortgage-backed securities from 2005 and 2007 were $22.5 billion.

In a statement shortly after he sued JPMorgan Chase, Mr. Schneiderman said the lawsuit was a template “for future actions against issuers of residential mortgage-backed securities that defrauded investors and cost millions of Americans their homes.”

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Tunisian opposition leader Chokri Belaid shot dead outside home













Chokri Belaid


The Unified Democratic Nationalist Party says Chokri Belaid was shot as he left his house in the capital Tunis. Witnesses say he was taken to a nearby clinic and died.
(Hassene Dridi / Associated Press / December 29, 2010)





































































CAIRO -- A leading opponent of Tunisia's Islamist-led government was assassinated in front of his home Wednesday, raising fears of sharpening political turmoil in the country that ignited the Arab Spring movement but remains starkly divided between liberals and Islamists.


Chokri Belaid, head of the Unified Democratic Nationalist Party, was shot on his way to work in the capital, Tunis, according to authorities. No one claimed immediate responsibility for the attack, but it comes as Tunisia faces a troubled economy and a restive transition to democracy after decades of dictatorship.  


"This is a criminal act, and act of terrorism not only against Belaid but against the whole of Tunisia," Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali told a radio station. Shortly after the killing, hundreds of protesters gathered outside the Interior Ministry.





An outspoken liberal with a bushy mustache, Belaid often criticized Nahda, the dominant moderate Islamist party for failing to unite the country's political factions. He had accused Ennahda of not clamping down on increasingly violent ultraconservative Salafis from attacking movie houses, art galleries and institutions they deem as against Islam.


Belaid's family told Tunisian media that he had received repeated death threats.


"Chokri Belaid was killed today by four bullets to the head and chest ... doctors told us that he has died. This is a sad day for Tunisia," Ziad Lakhader, a leader of the Popular Front, was quoted as saying to Reuters.


Tunisian President President Moncef Marzouki who was traveling in France said he would cancel a planned trip to Cairo on Thursday and return home.


ALSO:


Bulgarian probe links Hezbollah to Israeli tourist bus attack


Bangladesh war crimes court jails Islamic party leader for life


Ahmadinejad ally linked to human rights abuses arrested in Iran


jeffrey.fleishman@latimes.com






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Karen Russell's <em>Vampires in the Lemon Grove</em> Is a Darkly Surreal Treat



Karen Russell is one of America’s most lauded young writers. Her first novel, Swamplandia!, was a Pulitzer Prize finalist and has been optioned by HBO. Her fiction combines a literary sensibility with a generous helping of the weird and surreal, which has made her popular with both literary magazines and fantasy and science fiction fans. This cross-genre approach is one that she sees in the work of many of her favorite authors, such as Kelly Link.



“You’re going to sacrifice a mimetic representational realism to tell another kind of truth,” says Russell in this week’s episode of the Geek’s Guide to the Galaxy podcast. “It’s like an optical trick to let you see something … that you might not be aware of if you were reading about the same plot set in a mall in New Jersey.”


Her first collection, St. Lucy’s Home for Girls Raised by Wolves, dealt largely with adolescents coming of age in a whimsical version of Russell’s native south Florida. Her second collection, Vampires in the Lemon Grove, ventures farther afield, with one story set in an Italian resort town and another set during the Meiji Restoration in Japan. The tone of the second book is darker, with several of the tales veering into outright horror, but stories about Antarctic tailgaters or U.S. presidents reincarnated as farm animals continue to revel in a joyful absurdism.


“Sometimes I wish you could just write the parody of whatever you’re writing,” says Russell. “It would probably be better in some ways.”


Listen to our complete interview with Karen Russell in Episode 79 of Geek’s Guide to the Galaxy (above), in which she recalls her early days as a secret nerd, confesses to feeling like the Bernie Madoff of fiction, and reveals that she’s highly ticklish. Then stick around after the interview as guest geek Lynne M. Thomas joins hosts John Joseph Adams and David Barr Kirtley for a panel discussion on the weirdest stories ever.



Karen Russell on being a secret nerd:


“I was the kind of nerd that wasn’t even courageous. I couldn’t even courageously claim my identity as a nerd … I remember I loved this Stephen R. Donaldson book called The Mirror of Her Dreams. It’s a two-book series, and it’s about this woman who … uses mirrors to see other worlds, and then she can enter those other worlds, which is basically a lot like writing, so I had this very concrete way to think about art as creation … But I remember being so embarrassed — hot-in-the-face embarrassed — when somebody saw that I was reading that … In Miami there seemed to be a stigma just if you were reading generally — that was suspicious enough — but certain of those covers aren’t doing you any favors. You know, there’s a woman in front of a dragon on the cover of your book. I think that had certain connotations, at least in my Miami high school, that I was eager to avoid.”


Karen Russell on her short story “Reeling for the Empire”:


“There’s an argument that the birth of feminist consciousness in Japan begins at this moment, because these women bind together to revolt against these conditions. There are these factory protests — completely female factory protests — because these places were riddled with tuberculosis and they basically held the women hostage. They were essentially slaves, and they worked ten-hour days in many cases … It’s a real horror story, and I think that to do that conversion and make it about this monstrous metamorphosis, where these women become these hybridized animal/machines, I think that was a way for me to think through what that must have been like when production gets mechanized, and suddenly time ceases to function the way it did before, and the factory work day is in place, and these women’s bodies became cogs in the larger machine.”


Lynne M. Thomas on pushing the envelope:


“There’s a story that I bought from Rachel Swirsky that hasn’t come out yet where I’m basically going to have to put a trigger warning on it for every possible kind of trigger there is — a trigger warning is for stories with things like domestic violence or sexual assault where people who have been subject to those crimes in real life might have a PTSD sort of reaction. And with Rachel, I was having this conversation where I was saying I’ve never seen these three types of stories done successfully in a way that didn’t completely upset me in the wrong ways, and she was like, ‘Challenge accepted!’ And she wrote this story that … I can’t even … I read it and I was like, ‘This is the most amazing, disturbing thing that I have ever read,’ and I bought in on the spot. I couldn’t believe that she’d managed to take a whole bunch of things that are so collectively awful and turn them into art. It’s called ‘Abomination Rises on Filthy Wings.’ Yeah, it’s not messing around.”


John Joseph Adams on the editor’s responsibility:


“As an editor, it kind of feels like a betrayal of your readers a little bit if you publish something that you don’t fully understand yourself, because when you present it to them, they want to believe that it’s going to make some sense, if they’re a good enough reader, and as an editor I don’t feel that I can be like, ‘Well, I think I understand it, but not really, so let’s leave it out there for the readers.’ And so the M. Rickert story is really the only time I’ve ever made an exception to that rule, and only because I’m certain that it’s brilliant, and the whole point of it is to make you feel that sense of strangeness, and it definitely succeeds in that.”


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